Who knows?
There has been speculation about which economist or econometrics firm would be the first to forecast a possible turnaround of the current housing downswing. Without surprise, it came from David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, interpreter of the building industry's crystal ball. The other contender was Lawrence Yun who holds the same title at the National Association of Realtors; unfortunately Yun's credibility, challenged daily by a blog called Lawrence Yun Watch, is successor to David Lereah, the NAR economist who embarrassingly had to issue a Reality Check on the prospect of a housing bubble in August of 2006. Yun was his Managing Director of Quantitative Research at the time
Seiders, whose credibility and track record hold up pretty well in spite of his industry bias, said recently that he expects the industry to bottom out in the first quarter of next year and for the industry to turn around in the remainder of 2008. He sites a healthy economy, decent job growth, controlled inflation, and favorable Federal Reserve activity as reasons for cautious mid-term optimism.
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a predictive technology software firm, released its latest quarterly forecast results for the third quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008. In it, Veros names the 5 best and 5 worst housing markets in the US based in terms of growth. You ready?
Top 5 Strongest Markets:
It's still anybody's guess how long home buyers will remain jittery. We're in a small pond where the ripple effect is occurring, where homeowners were hit first and then lenders, banks, investors, regulators and legislators. When the ripples hit the edge of the pond and start to come back on themselves, we begin to see solutions and things start to settle down again.
When this will start happening is anyone's guess, including Seiders. As Patrick Moynihan once said, "You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts." When more economists chime in, and the further they are from Washington, the facts will become stronger than the opinions and we'll begin to have a clearer idea of when this thing will turn around. When will it happen? Who knows.
Seiders, whose credibility and track record hold up pretty well in spite of his industry bias, said recently that he expects the industry to bottom out in the first quarter of next year and for the industry to turn around in the remainder of 2008. He sites a healthy economy, decent job growth, controlled inflation, and favorable Federal Reserve activity as reasons for cautious mid-term optimism.
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a predictive technology software firm, released its latest quarterly forecast results for the third quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008. In it, Veros names the 5 best and 5 worst housing markets in the US based in terms of growth. You ready?
Top 5 Strongest Markets:
- Raleigh-Cary
- Austin-Round Rock
- Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord
- Salt Lake City
- Albuguerque
- Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville
- Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville
- Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice
- Cape Coral-Fort Meyers
- Riverside-San Bernardino
It's still anybody's guess how long home buyers will remain jittery. We're in a small pond where the ripple effect is occurring, where homeowners were hit first and then lenders, banks, investors, regulators and legislators. When the ripples hit the edge of the pond and start to come back on themselves, we begin to see solutions and things start to settle down again.
When this will start happening is anyone's guess, including Seiders. As Patrick Moynihan once said, "You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts." When more economists chime in, and the further they are from Washington, the facts will become stronger than the opinions and we'll begin to have a clearer idea of when this thing will turn around. When will it happen? Who knows.
posted by Ian Huckabee at 8:15 AM
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